Kelly Criterion Soccer Betting Formula

• November 03,2022
• -
• Jake Woodward

Kelly Criterion Soccer Betting Formula

The Kelly Criterion is a statistical and mathematical formula that helps a punter estimate the maximum and minimum amount to give in a particular betting situation. In essence, the Kelly Criterion helps a punter gauge the level of risk in a wager and matches it to a punter’s desired risk betting level. The Kelly Criterion is from the field of finance, where brokers, traders, and advisors calculate the level of risk an investor should take based on the expected risk and return. However, the application of the Kelly Criterion has since spread to other fields, including but not limited to betting, cryptocurrencies, insurance, financials, and more.

What Is The Kelly Criterion Soccer Betting Strategy?

The Kelly Criterion soccer betting strategy is a scientific method and formula applied to a specific betting strategy. A punter can calculate the level of risk associated with a particular wager and the level of risk that the punter is comfortable with taking before choosing any bet. By estimating risk, a punter better understands the odds and probability of winning or losing a wager. The threat also enables punters to compare different types of bets based on risk.  

Features Of The Kelly Soccer Betting Formula

Some of the key features of the Kelly Criterion soccer betting formula include a punter’s total bankroll funds, the level of acceptable risk, the opportunity cost of making a wager, whether to increase or decrease a stake in subsequent bets and the use of decimal wagers to understand the Kelly Criterion better.

Bankroll Funds

A punter should consider the level of acceptable risk based on their total funds bankroll. At any time or on any given wager, a punter shouldn’t bet more than 3% of their entire bankroll, even on a guaranteed chance. In betting, there’s no guaranteed bet or riskless wagers (except in arbitrage situations). If a punter has a high bankroll, then a punter can choose to take more risky gambles. If a punter has a lower bankroll, they may try to make risky wagers to win quick profits; however, such a bettor can lose all their funds on the back of a few losses. Estimating risk based on a punter’s bankroll is one of the critical components of the Kelly soccer betting strategy.

Level Of Acceptable Risk

A punter’s risk level is from a punter’s expectations and betting goals. If a punter is willing to take more risk in anticipation of a higher reward, a punter can make riskier wagers or set higher staking proportions. Alternatively, a risk-averse punter will be inclined to accept a lower return (profit) in exchange for a lower level of risk.

The Opportunity Cost Of Wagers

The opportunity cost of one wager is the potential income lost on other bets. Since a punter only has a limited amount of funds, a punter needs to consider the most profitable wager to make. For example, if a punter has only $1000 and wants to make a wager of $50 on a bet. If a punter can only make one wager, the punter forgoes hundreds of other chances.

Increase Or Decrease Subsequent Stakes

An increase or decrease in subsequent stakes helps punters understand their preferred style or betting system. For example, a risk-averse punter may decrease a stake after a loss and increase their stake after a win. Since winnings are from the online bookmaker, the punter increases their stake by playing with house money. Alternatively, a punter could decrease their stake after a loss to win back lost funds. However, such a progressive betting strategy can have a high risk and reward premium.

The Use Of Decimals

Using decimal odds helps a punter not only understand the odds, profit, and probability of an event, but punters also use decimals to estimate different levels of risk. Punters can measure risk on a scale and utilize decimal odds to select the best wagers when comparing different bets and wagers across other betting markets.