The Role Of Expected Goals (xG) In Soccer Betting: How To Utilize It

Betting Guide / Betting Help

September 18,2023
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Jake Woodward

The Significance Of Expected Goals (xG) In Soccer Betting

In sports, predicting the outcomes of matches has become a science. One of the most widely-used tools among professional and amateur bettors is the concept of expected goals or xG. If you’re even marginally interested in soccer betting, you’ve undoubtedly heard of xG. But do you understand it? Today, we will help you understand the role of expected goals in soccer betting and help you learn how to use the statistic to your advantage.

Understanding Expected Goals (xG)

You’ll have at least a dozen shots in a random soccer game. What’s the likelihood of each image resulting in a goal? That’s what xG can use to learn. The statistic gives a numerical value on a scale from 0 to 1, showing the probability of a goal finding the back of the net. To calculate eG, one must consider multiple factors, including shot quality, distance from the plan, shot angle, and the type of pass received.

The Importance Of xG In Soccer Betting

Why is it so crucial for soccer bettors to understand this statistic? You can gain valuable insights into player and team performances by analyzing xG. If you want to assess the effectiveness of shots during a soccer match, xG is one of your most effective tools. You want to bet on teams with excellent and organized offenses. With xG, you can do just that and analyze its performance by comparing its xG against other teams.

Variations of xG

There are more than a couple of variations of xG stat that are worth mentioning:

xG/90: Expected goals per 90 minutes give you an idea of how many plans you can expect from a single player or team during the length of a game. It shows you the actual attacking power teams and individuals possess.

Non-penalty xG: The metric excludes penalty kicks from the equation and shows you pure tracking skills an individual or team posses.

xGf: Expected goals are a statistic, usually calculated after the match. It helps you determine the number of goals a team anticipates to have scored during that game based on expected goals data.

Of course, there are other variations of the statistic, but if we talked about every single one, we would save time. If you plan on betting on soccer more seriously, you need to do more research and learn about every variation of every possible statistic.

Limitations of xG

Nothing is perfect. Just like any other statistic, xG has its limitations. And you need to be aware of them. For instance, highly skilled soccer players and teams sometimes outperform their xG. That’s because they possess the skills to convert much difficult shooting chances into goals. What’s more, the statistic doesn’t take external factors like team schedule, player injuries, and weather conditions that can impact the outcome of a given match.

Closing Thoughts

Since it became widely known, this statistic has revolutionized predicting and analyzing soccer matches. To know whether a team is an offensive juggernaut, you must explore shot quality, distance, and angle. Expected goals do that for you and help you make good betting decisions and make accurate precisions regularly. To increase your bottom line, start using xG while researching teams.