Demystifying Sports Betting Statistical Analysis And Distributions

• May 24,2024
• -
• Bruce Williams

Demystifying Sports Betting Statistical Analysis And Distributions

Do you know how big casinos and bookmakers come up with odds? Why it's not round numbers, or why the team you consider an underdog is a favorite in their eyes? What do they know that we don't?

Very little; they are not watching the future or some magic ball that tells them who will win. They all use statistical analysis, but how do these analyses work? Let's get straight into it.

Statistical Analysis

Statistical analysis has three main parts to understand and comprehend what's going on.

Regression Analysis

When someone is talking about statistical analysis in sports betting, they are talking about regression analysis. This analysis includes several things to determine the connection between dependent and independent variables.

• Dependant Variable: In the world of analysis and sports betting, this is you winning a bet.

• Independent Variable: This includes a lot of other things. Things like any statistic in the game. For example, the number of rushed yards, passing completion, and similar stats.

Statistical Significance

In the term statistical significance, the word significance doesn't mean important. It refers to the result. The result has statistical significance when it's a low chance that something will happen a certain way without a clear connection between variables. Let's give you one example so you can understand this better.

Example: Completion percentage plays a significant role in the results of NFL games. By that, the completion percentage tells us whether Team A can win against Team B.

Now, we test it. We need to pull as much as possible historical data on NFL matches. Then see how often the completion percentage influenced the game. The answer would give us a rate of statistical significance.

Correlation And Causation

When working with statistical analysis, you must remember that correlation doesn't always mean causation. It means that just because two things happened doesn't mean they are correlated. Even if they are, it does not mean one caused the other.

Probability Distributions

Statistical analysis is only one-half of what you need to increase your odds of winning; the other half includes probability distributions. Probability distributions determine that what you predicted has a real chance of happening.

Bayesian Network

It is the most commonly used graphical model for predictive distribution. This model breaks the networks into levels with different variables that can affect the match.

Poisson Distribution

It is a predictive method used in any sport where stats are in increments of one. It works by converting averages into ranges of various probabilities; this can be great for predicting the score of a match. Also, it can help predict over/under and that type of bet.

Binomial Distribution

It is how we calculate the probability of success or failure in an experiment a few times. It has several variables, which include the number of times we performed the analysis (n) and the probability of a specific result happening (p). We can predict the most likely win/loss record for future bets using this method.

Closing Thoughts

You must include statistical analysis and probability distributions to develop a sound betting system, or at least better than what you are playing now. Sports betting has much to do with data analysis; bookmakers are using them, which indicates that you should too.