The Favourite–Longshot Bias: Why Bettors Often Overpay for Big Payouts

• October 21,2026
• -
• Jake Woodward

The Favourite–Longshot Bias: Why Bettors Often Overpay for Big Payouts

A $10 bet returning $500 sounds far more exciting than a $10 bet returning $15.

That's exactly why longshot bets attract so much attention in soccer betting. Whether it's an unlikely correct score, a massive accumulator, or an underdog winning against a league favourite, the possibility of a big payout can be difficult to resist.

But there's a hidden problem. Bettors often pay too much for the chance of winning big.

This behaviour is known as the favourite–longshot bias, a well-studied pattern in betting markets where longshots can offer worse value than favourites relative to their actual chances of winning.

Understanding this bias can help bettors make more rational decisions and avoid confusing attractive payouts with genuinely valuable opportunities.

What Is the Favourite–Longshot Bias?

The favourite–longshot bias describes a tendency in some betting markets for longshots to be priced less generously relative to their true probabilities than favourites.

In simple terms, bettors may overestimate the chances of unlikely outcomes because the potential rewards are so attractive.

Consider two hypothetical soccer bets:

Selection	Decimal Odds	Implied Probability
Strong favourite to win	1.30	76.9%
Major underdog to win	10.00	10.0%

The underdog offers a much bigger payout, but that doesn't automatically make it better value.

Suppose the underdog's actual winning probability is only 7%. At odds of 10.00, the bet has a negative expected return despite its attractive potential payout.

Meanwhile, a favourite priced at 1.30 could represent better value if its actual winning probability is sufficiently higher than the bookmaker's implied probability.

The important lesson is that big odds and good value are not the same thing.

Why Bettors Are Attracted to Longshots

Human psychology plays an important role in this bias.

A small chance of winning a large amount can feel more exciting than a relatively high chance of earning a modest return. Bettors often focus on what they could win rather than how likely they are to win it.

This explains the popularity of correct-score predictions, large accumulators, and extreme underdog selections.

Social media can amplify the effect. A successful 100.00 odds accumulator attracts far more attention than several ordinary winning selections at 1.80.

What viewers rarely see are the many unsuccessful longshot bets placed before that one impressive winner.

Over time, this selective exposure can create unrealistic expectations about how frequently large payouts occur.

How Bookmakers Price Longshot Bets

Bookmakers don't simply calculate probabilities and offer perfectly fair odds. They generally build a margin into their prices, and that margin isn't necessarily distributed equally across every outcome.

In some markets, longshots carry a proportionally larger margin than favourites.

For example, a bookmaker might offer an unlikely outcome at 15.00 even though a fair assessment of its probability would imply odds closer to 20.00.

The difference is significant. The advertised payout looks large, but the bettor is receiving a worse price than the estimated probability justifies.

However, the favourite–longshot bias is not universal. Its strength varies across bookmakers, competitions, betting markets, and time periods. Some markets show weaker patterns or different pricing behaviour.

That's why bettors shouldn't automatically assume every favourite is good value or every underdog is overpriced.

What This Means for Soccer Tipster Followers

The favourite–longshot bias becomes particularly relevant when evaluating tipsters who specialise in high-odds selections.

A tipster might advertise a spectacular winner at odds of 25.00 or 50.00. These results are excellent marketing material, but they reveal very little about long-term profitability.

Imagine a tipster places 100 bets at average odds of 20.00, staking one unit per selection.

They win four bets and lose 96.

Despite producing four impressive payouts, their total return is 80 units against 100 units staked, resulting in a loss of 20 units.

This is why strike rate, average odds, total stakes, and verified ROI must be evaluated together.

High-odds tipsters can be genuinely profitable if they consistently identify prices that exceed the true probabilities of their selections. But occasional massive wins are not enough to demonstrate that ability.

How to Avoid Overpaying for Big Payouts

The best approach is to evaluate every selection based on its price and estimated probability rather than its potential payout.

Before placing a longshot bet, ask whether the odds genuinely compensate for how unlikely the outcome is.

A correct-score bet at 15.00 might look attractive, but if your realistic probability estimate suggests fair odds should be 25.00, the selection offers poor value.

The same principle applies to favourites. A team with an 80% chance of winning isn't automatically a good bet at odds of 1.15.

For tipster followers, verified long-term records are particularly important. Look for consistent performance across meaningful sample sizes, realistic published odds, and transparent reporting of losing selections.

Responsible bankroll management also matters because longshot strategies can produce extended losing streaks, even when some selections offer positive expected value.

Final Thoughts

The favourite–longshot bias highlights an important weakness in how people evaluate betting opportunities.

Big payouts are exciting, but excitement doesn't determine profitability.

A longshot offering odds of 30.00 can be a terrible bet, while an ordinary selection at 1.70 might offer genuine value. The reverse can also be true.

Successful betting analysis requires looking beyond potential winnings and focusing on the relationship between probability and price.

When choosing soccer tipsters, don't be distracted by spectacular winning screenshots or unusually high odds.

Focus on verified performance, realistic pricing, and long-term evidence.

The best bet isn't necessarily the one that pays the most. It's the one offering the best value for the risk involved.