Underdog Betting Edge: How Set Piece Stats Unlock Real Value

Betting Guide / Betting Help

February 04,2026
-
Jake Woodward

The Hidden Value of Set Piece Stats in Underdog Betting

When you think of underdogs pulling off surprises in football, what comes to mind? Gritty defending? Counterattacks? Maybe even a bit of luck? But there's one underrated area that offers consistent value for sharp bettors: set pieces.

Corners, free kicks, and long throws are often overlooked by casual punters, but they’re a goldmine—especially for smaller teams that struggle to dominate open play. In this article, we’ll explore why set piece stats are crucial in underdog betting and how to use them to your advantage.

1. Why Set Pieces Level the Playing Field

Underdogs often can't match the technical ability, pace, or possession game of top teams. But set pieces are repeatable routines. They reduce the game to a structured moment, where physicality, positioning, and planning matter more than flair.

This gives lesser teams a way to:

Score against the run of play
Threaten better teams without needing dominance
Create chaos in the box from dead-ball situations

In short, set pieces neutralize talent gaps.

2. What to Look for in Set Piece Stats

When analyzing teams, don’t just look at goals scored or conceded. Dig deeper into their set piece metrics, such as:

Set piece xG (expected goals from dead-ball situations)
Goals scored/conceded from corners & free kicks
Average corners won per game
Aerial duel success rate
Number of key headers per 90 mins
Height advantage over the opponent

Teams like Brentford, Freiburg, and even Morocco at the World Cup have thrived using clever set piece routines.

3. Key Markets to Target

Once you've identified set piece strength (or weakness), here are the markets to exploit:

Underdog to Score (Team Goals)

Strong aerial teams can nick a goal from a corner even with 30% possession.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score)

If the favorite is leaky on set pieces, the underdog may still score even if outplayed.
Anytime Goalscorer (Defenders)

Tall center-backs like Craig Dawson, Virgil van Dijk, or even lower-league enforcers often get overlooked in goalscorer markets.
Over Corners for Underdogs

Teams may not control the game but still earn corners via long balls and pressure.

4. Case Study: Brentford vs Arsenal (2023)

Brentford scored from a long throw against Arsenal—a classic example of using set pieces to equalize against a technically superior side. Arsenal dominated possession, but Brentford's set piece strength made them a dangerous underdog. Smart bettors backed them to score at generous odds.

5. How to Build a Set Piece Edge

Here’s how to incorporate set pieces into your weekly prep:

Track set piece xG for every team
Compare average height & aerial duel stats before every matchup
Look for injuries to key set piece takers or markers
Follow clubs that invest in set piece coaching
Use visualization tools to spot set piece trends (e.g., zonal vs man-marking)

Conclusion: Set Pieces Aren’t Random

They’re strategic weapons—especially for underdogs. Bookmakers price games heavily based on open play, form, and reputation. But sharp bettors know that one corner, one free kick, one flicked header can rewrite the script.

If you're ignoring set pieces, you're missing real betting value.

« The Evolution of Football Betting: 10 Years of Game-Changing Innovations